Prominent Strategist Declares: "The Era of US Global Dominance Officially Ends Now!"

At a pivotal juncture marked by profound shifts in the global political and economic landscape, a striking assertion from Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sent ripples across the international community. On April 21, 2025, Dalio publicly proclaimed that "the era of US global dominance officially ends now." This "strategic prognosticator," renowned for his accurate prediction of the 2008 global financial crisis, has once again ignited widespread attention and intense debate worldwide with his latest pronouncement. The American political and business spheres have also taken note, with a flurry of contrasting viewpoints emerging.

Dalio's judgment is not based on mere conjecture but is deeply rooted in his "cycle of national rise and decline" theory, coupled with an analysis of the current multifaceted realities of the United States, encompassing its economic and political dimensions. He systematically categorizes the national lifecycle into six stages: the establishment of a new order, the gradual refinement of new institutions, an era of peace and prosperity, a period of excessive spending and debt, deteriorating fiscal conditions, and finally, civil war or revolution. Based on his research, Dalio posits that the United States has now entered the fifth stage – that of deteriorating fiscal conditions. He views specific critical data points, such as the US escalating tariffs on China to 104% and the global de-dollarization trend surpassing 60%, as significant signals indicating that the collapse of US hegemony has entered its final countdown.

From a military perspective, the United States, since the end of World War II, has constructed a robust and formidable military hegemonic system, underpinned by its unparalleled military strength, absolute control over NATO, and a vast network of global military bases and deployments. Over the past decades, numerous US allies, spanning European nations and Asia-Pacific countries like Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, have operated under its military umbrella, closely aligning their strategic actions with those of the US. However, the situation has undergone notable changes in recent years. The Trump administration argued that the US bore an excessive burden in protecting its allies, pressing them to increase their defense spending and enhance their own security capabilities. Similarly, US Vice President Vance publicly stated at the Munich Security Conference that the US could not guarantee continued protection for Europe, urging the continent to build its own security architecture. Concurrently, China's rapid advancements in military technology and significant strengthening of its military capabilities have created a degree of military advantage over the US in the Western Pacific, gradually eroding the relative dominance of US military hegemony. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge that the US still possesses a vast and advanced arsenal, leading military technologies, and extensive combat experience, ensuring its military influence remains substantial globally.

The technological sphere represents another critical area where US hegemony faces challenges. There was a time when the United States held an immense and seemingly unassailable lead in numerous technological domains. However, China has now achieved significant leaps and breakthroughs in several key technological sectors. From its global leadership in 5G communication technology to its innovative explorations in artificial intelligence; from its major achievements in aerospace to its cutting-edge research in quantum computing, China is steadily narrowing the gap with the US, even surpassing it in certain areas. The foundations of US technological hegemony are facing unprecedented pressure. Nonetheless, the US still maintains a deep reservoir of technological accumulation, top-tier research talent, and a well-established innovation ecosystem in fundamental scientific research, high-end chip manufacturing, and biopharmaceuticals, ensuring its continued leading position in global technology and its strong competitive edge in the international technological race.

In terms of financial hegemony, the United States has long exerted global financial dominance through the SWIFT dollar settlement system and the international reserve currency status of the US dollar, frequently imposing economic and financial sanctions on nations it deems unfavorable, a practice that has caused considerable hardship for many countries worldwide. Currently, the global "de-dollarization" trend is gaining momentum. According to statistics from relevant international financial institutions, the cumulative reduction in global holdings of US Treasury bonds has reached $1.2 trillion. China's Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is continuously improving and now covers over 180 countries and regions. Nations such as Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly adopting alternative payment methods like WeChat Pay to bypass the SWIFT system. Russia is also actively promoting the establishment of a new payment system independent of the dollar within the BRICS framework. While these trends indicate a significant challenge to US financial hegemony, the US dollar still holds a dominant position in international trade settlement and as a global reserve currency. The erosion of its financial hegemony will undoubtedly be a protracted and complex process.

Dalio's assertion of the "end of US hegemony" offers a novel perspective for examining the shifting international landscape. Although the US faces numerous challenges to its hegemonic status in the military, technological, and financial spheres, current realities suggest that the United States remains the world's most powerful nation in terms of comprehensive strength. The decline of its hegemony is likely to be a long and unpredictable process. The future global order may no longer be dominated by a single superpower but instead accelerate towards a multipolar structure, with various nations seeking a new dynamic equilibrium through competition and cooperation. We must adopt a rational and objective stance, continuously monitoring the profound impacts of this historic transformation and collectively exploring the construction of a more equitable, reasonable, and stable new international order.