India's Large Army, Tanks, Yet Restraint Against Pakistan: Here's Why

Recently, a large-scale shooting incident occurred at a tourist attraction in Indian-controlled Kashmir, resulting in 26 deaths and multiple injuries. In response, the Indian Prime Minister made strong statements, vowing to bring the perpetrators to justice no matter how far they flee. Currently, India has deployed a large number of security forces to search for the gunmen. However, many days have passed since the attack, and there is still no news of any arrests.

Unable to apprehend the culprits or provide concrete evidence, India has unilaterally asserted that the attack was "planned and executed" by the Pakistani military and has taken a series of retaliatory measures against Pakistan. Pakistan has also stood firm, leading to clashes between the two sides due to mutual unwillingness to concede. According to Xinhua News Agency, a Pakistani military official told the media that Pakistani and Indian troops engaged in intermittent firing between approximately 1:30 AM and 2:30 AM local time on the 25th, near the Line of Control in the Jhelum Valley area of Pakistani-controlled Kashmir.

In fact, this is the second exchange of fire between Indian and Pakistani troops. Indian media reported that Indian military sources stated that on the evening of the 24th local time, Indian and Pakistani forces exchanged fire near the Line of Control in Kashmir, with no casualties. Furthermore, according to Russian media reports, at 11:00 PM local time on April 26th, Indian troops once again provoked, heavily firing on a Pakistani army border post in the Lipa Valley area of Kashmir. Pakistani forces quickly retaliated, using heavy rocket artillery to conduct long-range strikes against Indian front-line positions, destroying Indian fire bases.

If the Russian media reports are accurate, it signifies an escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan, with both sides using heavy weaponry against each other, potentially leading to further intensification. What worries the outside world is that following the attack, both India and Pakistan simultaneously increased troop deployments to the border under the pretext of conducting military exercises. In response, Pakistani Defense Minister Asif recently warned that the shooting incident in Indian-controlled Kashmir could lead to a "full-scale war" between the two countries. Clearly, if both sides fail to exercise restraint and allow the conflict to escalate, a large-scale war between them may become unavoidable.

It's important to note that both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states. If the border conflict escalates into a full-scale war without any constraints, it could very likely lead to a nuclear crisis. Obviously, if Indian Prime Minister Modi is thinking rationally, he should take measures to de-escalate the situation and avoid a full-scale war that could have catastrophic consequences for both sides. And at this sensitive moment, Modi has done something that could be described as "outrageous." According to Reference News, local authorities stated that India released water from the Uri Dam in Indian-controlled Kashmir on the 26th without prior warning, causing a sudden rise in the water level of the Jhelum River and plunging Pakistani-controlled Kashmir into chaos.

Some Indian media outlets claimed that this sudden water release caused an emergency water situation in the Hattian Bala area of Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. Local authorities issued a statement saying that due to India releasing an unusually large volume of water into the Jhelum River, moderate flooding has occurred, forcing riverside residents to flee to safety. Clearly, the Modi government appears to be "weaponizing" natural resources, using artificially created floods as a substitute for war to "attack" Pakistan. Of course, this approach by the Modi government also indicates, from another perspective, that they do not want to provoke a full-scale war with Pakistan.

How can this be explained? A few days ago, India unilaterally abrogated the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, threatening to "close the gates and cut off water" to Pakistan, a move that could lead to a water scarcity crisis for downstream Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan subsequently issued a warning that India's actions to cut off Pakistan's water supply were "tantamount to a declaration of war," and Pakistan would retaliate with full force. In other words, if the Modi government were to actually cut off downstream water sources, Pakistan's only option might be to respond with military means, resulting in a full-scale Indo-Pakistani war.

Thus, it can be seen that India is now releasing water rather than cutting off its flow, and its aim should be to force Pakistan to compromise and concede. Of course, this seemingly "outrageous" approach by India is actually more like an attempt to avoid a full-scale war. After all, by doing so, they are not crossing Pakistan's red line for war. As long as a full-scale war does not erupt, the minor skirmishes between the two countries' armies on the border should not lead to any catastrophic consequences.