India retaliates against Pakistan post-Kashmir attack: Water cut-off, visa freeze, expulsion, and st

Following a deadly shooting incident in Indian-administered Kashmir, India announced a series of retaliatory measures against Pakistan on April 23rd. Pakistan responded by convening an emergency meeting the following day to discuss its strategy.   

The attack, considered the deadliest in the region since 2019, has raised international concerns about a potential resurgence of military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

Multi-pronged repercussions

In the aftermath of the incident, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia, returning home on the 23rd to urgently convene a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security. Following the meeting, Indian Foreign Secretary Tang Yong Sheng announced a raft of stringent measures targeting Pakistan, spanning water resources, border control, people-to-people exchanges, and diplomatic relations.   

On a strategic level, India has put the Indus Waters Treaty on hold, ceasing cooperation on river water sharing "until Pakistan credibly and irreversibly abandons its support for cross-border terrorism."   

Pakistan heavily relies on the downstream waters of the Indus River system in Indian-administered Kashmir for its hydropower and irrigation needs. The suspension of the treaty will deny Pakistan access to this crucial water supply. Notably, India has never suspended the treaty before, even during open conflicts with its neighbor. Analysts suggest this move will directly impact Pakistan's agricultural production and power generation, potentially causing severe economic disruption, especially with the approaching irrigation season.   

Economically, India has closed the Atari-Wagah integrated check post, a vital border crossing for trade and movement of people between the two nations, stating that those who have crossed into India can return through the same point by May 1st. With no direct flights operating between India and Pakistan, this action effectively severs all transportation links.   

Furthermore, the border closure will directly affect bilateral trade, particularly Pakistan's exports to India, including fresh fruits, cement, and petroleum products.

Additionally, India has barred Pakistani citizens from traveling to India on South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) visas. Pakistani citizens currently in India on SVES visas have been given 48 hours to leave the country.   

Diplomatically, India is expelling all military advisors from the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi, requiring them to leave within a week. India will also withdraw its military advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad. From May 1st, the total number of staff at the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi will be reduced from the current 55 to 30.   

Previously, following the Pulwama attack in 2019, the Indian government also implemented several retaliatory measures against Pakistan, including recalling its ambassador to Pakistan, revoking Pakistan's most-favored-nation status, and imposing tariffs on Pakistani goods exported to India.

Pakistan denies involvement

Faced with India's assertive measures, Pakistan's National Security Committee (NSC) convened an emergency meeting on April 24th, chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, to deliberate on a counter-strategy.   

Pakistani Defense Minister Asif on April 23rd refuted India's accusations, stating that Pakistan had no connection to the attack and that the violent incident was a "local event."   

The shooting incident on April 22nd resulted in the deaths of at least 26 people, including one Nepalese national, and left dozens injured. This incident marks the highest death toll in a terrorist attack in the region since the 2019 Pulwama attack.   

Currently, Indian police are attributing the attack to militant groups opposed to Indian rule in the region.

Meanwhile, "The Resistance Front" (TRF), operating under the name "Kashmir Freedom Fighters" on social media, claimed responsibility for the attack. The organization stated that the attack was retaliation for the Indian government's policy of "introducing outsiders" into the region, alleging that over 85,000 settlers had been allowed to enter, causing demographic changes.   

Observers point out that the demographic policies implemented by the Indian government after revoking the region's special status in 2019 may have been a trigger for the militant attack.

Other analysts suggest that with the improvement in the security situation and the resurgence of tourism in the region after the COVID-19 pandemic, the attackers may have deliberately targeted the popular tourist destination of Pahalgam to severely damage the local tourism industry and thereby undermine the Indian government's economic revitalization plans for the area.   

Notably, the timing of the attack coinciding with Modi's visit to Saudi Arabia and Vance's visit to India, as well as recent remarks by Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Munir regarding Kashmir, has led to speculation that these events may not be coincidental.   

Against this backdrop, echoing the aftermath of the 2019 Pulwama attack, the Indian government and local media have once again directed blame towards Pakistan, further escalating tensions between the two nations.

Escalating tensions

The issue of Kashmir's sovereignty has remained the core of the conflict between India and Pakistan since their partition in 1947. Both countries claim the region, and they have fought three wars, two of which were over Kashmir.   

With the latest shooting incident, the international community is widely concerned that history may repeat itself.

One commentary noted that the attack "shattered the illusion of calm in Kashmir," exposing security vulnerabilities in one of the world's most militarized regions and potentially pushing the two countries closer to military confrontation once again.   

Following the 2019 Pulwama suicide bombing, which killed 40 Indian soldiers, India and Pakistan engaged in a serious military standoff, including aerial combat and ground shelling, bringing the situation dangerously close to full-scale war. While that crisis eventually de-escalated with Pakistan's release of a captured Indian pilot, it severely damaged bilateral trust.   

However, some analysts believe that India's current retaliatory measures, primarily focused on non-military domains, reflect a cautious approach towards the risk of a full-blown military conflict. Utilizing diplomatic isolation, economic pressure, and control over water resources as leverage may become a new normal in India's future strategy towards Pakistan.